AI Predictions rewards lead time, specificity, falsifiability, correct mechanism, realised alignment and consistency — while separating documented facts from our editorial interpretation.
1. Lead time
We give more weight to a prediction made before the trend becomes obvious. A 2017 forecast about commercial generative content is more informative than the same claim made after consumer image generators become mainstream.
2. Specificity and falsifiability
“AI will change everything” is not a forecast. A date, probability, measurable capability or defined commercial outcome can be evaluated later.
3. Mechanism
Identifying the process behind an outcome matters. Scaling laws, learning systems, inference-time computation and organisational adoption are mechanisms; vague optimism is not.
4. Realised alignment
We compare the original claim with subsequent events. Where an outcome has not yet resolved — such as a future AGI date — we say so rather than treating the forecast as a success.
5. Consistency
A prediction that is repeatedly moved away from the present receives less weight than one held stable over time. Probabilistic forecasts are judged according to the probability originally assigned, not as binary promises.
6. Source hierarchy
| Evidence type | How we use it |
|---|---|
| Peer-reviewed paper / academic publisher | Highest weight for technical and historical claims |
| Recorded interview / official transcript | Strong evidence for dated public predictions |
| Publisher / employer / personal site | Useful first-party evidence, clearly labelled when self-reported |
| Secondary journalism | Used for context and corroboration |
| Unverified reposts | Not used as sole support for important claims |
7. Category-sensitive ranking
We do not pretend that every prediction is the same. Timeline forecasting, mechanism forecasting, commercial foresight and risk forecasting are separate disciplines. The overall ranking therefore reflects the methodology used for a specific article, while category winners are identified explicitly.
Corrections
If a source is superseded, a date resolves, or new evidence changes a judgment, we update the article and its machine-readable data. Every major page includes a visible last-reviewed date.